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Politics
Who will the next Pope be?
This market tracks speculation on who will become the next Pope before 2070.
KXNEWPOPE-70INTERNATIONAL_INSTITUTIONSFairly Priced
Market Summary
The market is fairly priced given Pope Francis’s age, health, and the long time horizon.
Analysis
As of January 2026, Pope Francis remains active and in good health at age 89. There are no public signals of resignation or preparations for a conclave. Given the long market horizon to 2070 and historical papal tenures, current pricing appears reasonable.